AMD

AMD has the momentum and catalyst fingerprint we want (breakout, direct headlines, server TAM raise), and win_prob=68 + thesis=74 nearly clears convergence bar but thesis just misses 60+. However, sizer-level concentration concern is meaningful here given five existing chip holdings. Hold conviction constructively but defer new buy to portfolio sizer.

Strong momentum and direct competitive catalyst, but convergence bar not cleanly met: thesis_pct 74 and win_prob 68 are both below the 'great company, great price' standard for new buys. Risk_quality 25 is weak. Stock has already run 330% off lows — chasing here near ATH without a clean thematic-news cluster headline specific to AMD is exactly the late-cycle entry we want to avoid. Skip.

AMD meets the convergence bar marginally (thesis 74, win-prob 68) with strong momentum and direct AI agentic catalyst headlines today. Per learnings, peer in active AI-silicon news cluster with held winners (MRVL, NVDA) deserves a second look despite high PE. Starter position warranted; Portfolio Sizer can manage sector concentration.

Watchlist name with explosive momentum and direct catalyst (Jensen comments). However convergence bar fails: thesis_pct=74 and win_prob=68 are both just shy of the 60/65 floor when accounting for stretched valuation (PE 156) and high correlation to existing NVDA/TSM/MRVL/AVGO book. Promising but not enough edge to add another correlated chip name today.

AMD meets the convergence bar narrowly (thesis 74, win_prob 68) and shows the breakout fingerprint we want — near 52w high, strong momentum, direct ticker mention in 'best AI chips to buy' headlines alongside NVDA/AVGO. Risk quality is poor but that's an intrinsic-vol issue the sizer can handle. Starter position warranted; let sizer decide weight given concentration.

AMD pattern matches the prior miss — strong thesis (74), exceptional momentum (98) and performance (84), direct catalysts. However, win_probability sits at 52, below the 65 floor for new_buy convergence. Recent learnings suggest flooring win_prob at 60 when thesis+performance+range align, but we're still below 65 even with that adjustment. Score this constructively (70) to keep it tracked, but do not initiate today. If win_prob ticks up next read, flip to new_buy.

AMD shows the breakout/momentum pattern our learnings flagged, but win_probability=52 is below the 65 convergence bar for new buys. Per AMD-specific learning, we floor win_prob at 60 when thesis>=70, performance>=90, range>=99 — but even floored, it doesn't clear 65. Catalyst also lacks a direct named-partnership headline. Keep on watchlist; do not whipsaw.

AMD has the breakout profile (perf 97, momentum 98, near 52wk highs) but win-probability at 52 fails the >=65 convergence bar for new_buy. The recent learnings flag AMD as a name where valuation vetoes hurt us — applying the floor-at-60 rule lifts conviction, but momentum is actively deteriorating (-5.69% 5d) which weakens the breakout pattern. Hold off new buy until win-prob crosses 60+ or momentum re-accelerates.

AMD remains the AMD problem from learnings. Strong thesis/momentum/performance but win-probability stuck at 52 — below the 65 bar for new_buy. Per learnings I'd floor win_prob at 60 here, but even adjusted it doesn't clear convergence. Recent -5.69% 5d also breaks the breakout pattern. Skip but keep watching; if win_prob lifts to 65+ with momentum restored, flip.

AMD pattern matches our prior miss — strong performance/momentum but win-prob (52) below the 65 convergence bar. Per learning notes, we should not whipsaw, but new_buy requires BOTH thesis>=60 AND win_prob>=65; win_prob fails. Recent -5.69% 5d weakness and sector concentration argue for patience. Skip, but elevated relative to other passes given strong technical profile.

Per the AMD learning, when thesis_pct>=70 and performance_pct>=90 and range near 52w high we should floor win_probability. AMD is at 74/100/range-near-high but win_prob 52 is still under the 65 new_buy bar. Recent momentum loss (-5.69%) and 141x PE keep this from clearing convergence. Keep on watchlist with elevated conviction but do not initiate today.

AMD has the technical/performance profile we historically underweighted to our regret, but win_probability at 52 fails the >=65 convergence bar for new buys. Recent -5.7% 5d weakness and stretched valuation argue for patience. Keep on watch — if score crosses 88 on a momentum re-acceleration we flip to new_buy per the AMD learning rule.

Strong breakout-confirmed setup with direct catalysts — exactly the pattern our AMD learning flagged. However, convergence rule still requires win_prob >= 65 for new_buy and AMD sits at 52. Per the learning we loosened to >=45, which would qualify, but the sector is already over-concentrated and we hold NVDA/AVGO/MRVL/TSM covering this thesis. Skip on portfolio fit, not stock quality.

AMD matches the recent-learnings pattern exactly: thesis_pct >= 70, performance_pct 100, breakout-confirmed. Per the loosened veto rule (cap win-prob requirement at 45 when breakout+thesis align), this clears for new_buy despite win_prob 52. This is the AMD-miss lesson — don't sit out a confirmed breakout. Modest sizing given concentration concerns, but worth a starter position.

AMD triggers the explicit AMD-pattern loosened veto from recent learnings: thesis_pct=74, performance_pct=100, near 52wk high, momentum>=57. Per the playbook, win_prob veto is capped here. Convergence isn't textbook but the +105% miss is the lesson — take a starter. Sizer can manage chip-sector concentration.

Classic AMD-pattern setup flagged in learnings: thesis_pct>=70, performance_pct>=85, near 52wk high, momentum strong, direct named-AI catalyst (agentic AI server CPU upgrades). Per the loosened convergence bar for confirmed breakouts, win_prob=52 is sufficient. We sat out AMD's +105% last cycle on exactly this profile — not repeating that mistake. Sizing/concentration left to portfolio sizer.

AMD checks the breakout-confirmed boxes that we missed last time (perf 100, range at 52wk high, thesis 74, momentum 74, multi-article catalyst). Per recent learnings, valuation veto should loosen here. However, hard risk constraint binds: ai-chips sector already 34% and adding pushes to 40%+ with high NVDA correlation. Cannot add despite attractive setup. Skip on portfolio construction grounds, not thesis grounds.

AMD shows the breakout pattern (near 52wk high, strong momentum, performance) that historically we've under-weighted. However, our hard rules require thesis_pct>=60 AND win_prob>=65 for new buys — win_prob is only 52. More critically, Risk Agent flags ai-chips concentration at 40%+ which is a HARD constraint per principle 5. Cannot add another semi name regardless of breakout pattern. Skip with acknowledgment that absent the sector cap this would warrant a buy.

Learnings note we've missed AMD before by letting valuation veto override breakout. But here the binding constraint is portfolio-level: ai-chips already at 34% and adding AMD pushes to 40%+. The convergence bar for new_buy requires win_prob >= 65 — AMD at 52 fails that test even with the loosened veto. Hard rule 5 (risk concentration) governs. Skip, but rank ahead of weaker semis to flag relative attractiveness.

AMD shows the exact winning pattern (range at 52w high, momentum=100, performance=100, multi-article catalyst confirmation including street-high PT and $120B CPU opportunity). Per learnings, peer-already-held should floor win-prob. However, hard risk constraint on sector concentration (40%+) blocks new buy. Conviction stays high to flag as soon as concentration room opens, but action is skip.

AMD shows the exact pattern from our learnings — peer in same news cluster (NVDA) held, breakout to highs, direct bullish catalyst (MI350P beating H200), perfect performance/momentum. Win-prob 68 clears bar and thesis 74 clears bar — convergence met. However, hard risk constraint: adding pushes ai-chips to 40%+. Per principle 5, risk constraints are hard. High conviction ranking but action must be skip until concentration relieves. Flag for re-entry if a chip name is trimmed.

AMD is the textbook miss pattern from our learnings — performance and momentum maxed, breaking out near 52wk highs, with a same-day Lisa Su agentic AI catalyst. Win-probability would normally floor at 55+ given peer NVDA is held. However, hard rule #5: Risk Agent flags ai-chips at 40%+ concentration, which blocks new adds regardless of conviction. High conviction signal but cannot act — skip on portfolio construction grounds, not thesis grounds.

AMD has exceptional catalyst (earnings beat, $600B market cap path) and breakout momentum — exactly the AMD-miss pattern we've flagged. However, hard risk constraint: ai-chips sector concentration would breach 40%. Per Risk Constraints rule, do not add despite specialist convergence. Skip with high conviction reflecting standalone quality.

AMD checks the recent-learnings AMD pattern (perf=100, near 52w high, peer NVDA held, strong direct catalysts including server CPU surpassing Intel and Q1 beat). Win-probability=68 already above the floor. However, Risk Agent explicitly flags this would push ai-chips to 40%+ concentration — a hard constraint per principle 5. Conviction reflects strong fundamentals but action must be skip on sector limit.

Decent thesis (74) and win-prob (68) would normally clear the new_buy bar, but Risk Agent explicitly flags that adding AMD pushes ai-chips concentration above 40% with high NVDA correlation. Hard risk constraint overrides individual-name attractiveness. Skip per Operating Principle 5.

AMD has strong momentum and a workable thesis, but new_buy requires thesis>=60 AND win_prob>=65 — win_prob is 68, thesis 74, marginally clearing. However, Risk Agent explicitly flags that adding AMD would push ai-chips concentration to 40%+, which is a hard constraint. Risk constraints override individual-name enthusiasm. Skip.

AMD fails the new-buy convergence test (win_prob=55 < 65). Direct negative catalyst from Meta's Graviton buy explicitly framed as a blow to AMD. Stock has already run parabolically and risk of reversal is elevated. Skip.

AMD looks momentum-strong but fails the new_buy convergence test (win_prob=55 < 65). Risk agent explicitly flags that adding would push ai-chips to dangerous 40%+ concentration and correlate heavily with NVDA/TSM/MRVL/AVGO already held. Hard risk constraint. Skip.

Watchlist name. Fails new-buy convergence test: thesis_pct=74 passes 60 bar but Win-Probability=55 is well below 65 threshold. Risk Agent explicitly flags sector concentration as hard constraint. Hard skip per Principles #3 and #5.

Fails the new-buy convergence test: win_probability of 55 is well below the 65 threshold despite thesis_pct of 74. Risk agent explicitly flags that adding AMD would push ai-chips to 40%+ concentration — a hard constraint. Stock has already run the 10% target this week, leaving poor entry. Skip.

New buy bar requires thesis>=60 AND win_prob>=65 — AMD fails the win-prob test at 55 after a parabolic move that already captured the near-term upside. Risk agent explicitly flags ai-chips at 40%+ which is a hard constraint. Skip.

Convergence test fails: thesis_pct=74 is fine but win_probability=55 is below the 65 bar for new buys. Risk agent explicitly flags ai-chips concentration would push past 40% — hard constraint per principle #5. Stock has already run the near-term move. Skip despite strong catalyst.

Catalyst is exceptional but this fails the convergence test for new buys (win_prob 55 < 65). Risk agent explicitly flags sector concentration would exceed 40% — a hard constraint. Stock has already run the 10% target this week; chasing here is poor risk/reward. Skip.

Convergence test fails: win_probability of 25 is well below the 65 threshold for new buys. Risk agent explicitly flags sector concentration. Strong catalyst doesn't override broken win-prob math. Skip despite hot tape.

New buy bar requires thesis>=60 AND win_prob>=65. Win_prob is 25 — fails decisively. Risk agent explicitly flags sector concentration. Strong momentum is not enough to override hard risk constraints. Skip.

Strong catalyst with two direct AMD agentic AI articles, but fails the convergence test (win_prob=25 well below 65 threshold). Risk Agent's hard concentration flag on ai-chips at 40%+ is a binding constraint per Principle 5. Cannot add another correlated chip name at ATH with extreme PE. Skip.

New buy requires BOTH thesis>=60 AND win_prob>=65. Win-Prob is only 25 — fails convergence gate decisively. Risk agent explicitly flags sector concentration at 40%+, a hard constraint. Catalyst strength doesn't override broken entry math. Skip despite the thesis appeal.

Watchlist name fails the new-buy convergence test: thesis 74 is adequate but win-prob 25 is far below the 65 threshold. Adding would push already-concentrated ai-chips exposure higher at all-time highs. Hard skip — 'great company, wrong price.'