QCOM

Per learnings, QCOM turnaround sub-model needs catalyst_pct >=50 AND thesis_pct >=60. Catalyst clears (50) but thesis at 43 fails. Strong momentum and win-prob are real, but without thesis convergence or direct headline, this remains a skip. Monitor for breakout confirmation.

Strong win-prob and momentum spike suggest a catalyst event already occurred, but thesis_pct=43 fails the 60 convergence bar for new buys. No direct ticker-specific headline. Turnaround sub-model from learnings requires thesis>=60; we're under. Hold off; chasing post-catalyst digestion on a watchlist name doesn't pass the bar.

QCOM has the move (+11.6% 5d, near 52w high) and win_prob (74) but thesis_pct of 43 fails the new-buy convergence rule (need >=60). The turnaround sub-model from learnings requires a direct competitive-positioning headline — catalyst notes none in window. Constructive but doesn't clear the bar; revisit if thesis rerates.

Per QCOM-specific learning, turnaround sub-model requires catalyst_pct >= 50 AND thesis_pct >= 60. Catalyst clears (55) but thesis at 43 fails the bar. Win-Probability is solid at 74 and momentum is exceptional, but without thesis convergence and without a direct competitive-positioning headline, this is a chase, not a setup. Keep on watchlist.

Strong momentum and win_prob with two direct AI-chip catalysts (Goldman ASIC piece, BofA chip cycle call). However, thesis_pct at 43 falls below the 60 convergence floor for new_buy. The turnaround sub-model pattern flagged in learnings applies here — but with stock already at 52w high and post-catalyst, chasing is less attractive than buying on dips. Skip new entry; watch for pullback.

QCOM technical/momentum profile is excellent (perfect performance, 96 momentum) but thesis_pct at 43 fails the new_buy convergence bar (need >=60). The learning note suggests flipping skipped bulls to new_buy when catalyst+score align, but here thesis remains weak and concentration risk is severe. Hold off without thesis confirmation.

Strong catalyst (Stellantis AI chip deal) and stellar momentum, but thesis_pct=43 and win_prob=57 both miss the new_buy convergence bar (60/65). The narrative-pivot rule from learnings requires score crossing 80; we're not there yet. Watch closely — if thesis re-rates higher next cycle, revisit. For now skip.

Despite strong technical momentum, thesis_pct of 43 and win_probability of 57 fall well short of the convergence bar. Recent learnings on QCOM narrative pivot require a thesis-specific headline which is absent — only generic sector tailwinds. No new buy.

QCOM has strong technicals and a relevant edge-AI catalyst, but thesis_pct of 43 and win_prob of 57 fall short of the convergence bar for new_buy. Narrative-pivot rule needs score >80 to flip; not there. Stay on watchlist.

Watchlist with thesis below 50 and win-prob below 65 — fails convergence. Catalyst is generic sector tailwind, no QCOM-specific narrative pivot triggered. Skip.

Thesis percentile of 43 and win_prob of 57 both below convergence thresholds. On-device AI narrative real but competitive pressure from MediaTek tempers conviction. Performance percentile high but momentum modest. Not a new buy here.

Watchlist name fails both thesis and win-prob convergence gates. Performance percentile high but momentum 34 and no direct catalyst. Edge AI thesis hasn't crystallized into named catalysts. Skip — no narrative pivot trigger met.

Strong technical setup approaching $228 resistance but hasn't broken out yet. Win_probability 62 just below the 65 new_buy threshold, thesis_pct only 43. News flow is data-center focused, not mobile/edge where QCOM plays. Wait for confirmed breakout above $228 before adding. Skip for now.

Strong technical setup approaching 52wk high but thesis_pct only 43 and win_prob 62 — fails the both-must-be-strong convergence test for new buys. Catalysts are indirect (Apple agent stories, not QCOM-specific). Wait for a confirmed breakout above $228 with company-specific AI catalyst before adding.

Decent technical setup approaching breakout but thesis_pct of 43 is too weak and catalyst is generic sector flow rather than company-specific. Fails convergence bar. Watch for a clean break above $228 with a named edge-AI product catalyst before reconsidering.

Pivot catalyst (agentic AI on one-third of smartphones) is genuinely interesting and momentum is improving toward $228 breakout. However, thesis_pct=43 fails the >=60 new-buy convergence requirement. Win_prob=62 also just under bar. Hasn't cleared resistance yet. Watch closely for breakout confirmation but no buy today.

Technical setup constructive and edge AI catalyst relevant, but thesis_pct only 43 and risk agent flags hard concentration constraint at 42%+ in AI-chips. Fails convergence bar (need thesis>=60). Skip.

Strong catalyst and performance with a direct AI partnership announcement, win_prob 62 just under convergence bar, thesis_pct only 43. Most importantly, risk agent flags severe ai-chips concentration that would breach 42%. Hard risk constraint prevents new_buy despite attractive setup. Keep on watchlist.

Strong technical setup approaching 52wk high breakout, but thesis_pct only 43 and win_prob 62 misses the 65 convergence bar. More importantly, Risk Agent flags severe ai-chips concentration — hard constraint blocks new buy regardless of technicals. Skip.

Qualcomm fails convergence bar on both thesis and win-probability. Risk agent explicitly flags adding would push AI-chips to 42% — hard concentration constraint. No direct catalyst. Skip.

Strong performance and a clean analyst-upgrade catalyst, but Win-Probability at 52 and thesis at 43 fail the convergence bar (need WP>=65 and thesis>=60). Risk agent's hard concentration constraint at 42% AI-chips also blocks adding. Skip.

Strong performance/momentum but fails convergence bar (thesis 43, win-prob 52, both below threshold). Risk agent flags severe AI-chips concentration that would breach hard sector limit. No QCOM-specific catalyst. Skip.

Performance and momentum strong but thesis weak (43) and WP only 52 — fails convergence bar. Risk agent explicitly flags adding would push AI-chips to 42%, a hard constraint violation. Skip despite price action.

Fails convergence bar on both thesis and win-probability. Risk Agent explicitly flags severe semi concentration if added — hard constraint. Mobile cycle exposure adds noise. Clear skip.

Weakest convergence in batch — thesis below 50, win-prob barely positive, and Risk Agent flags this would push semis to 42%. No catalyst urgency. Skip.

Fails new-buy convergence test decisively: both thesis (43) and win-prob (52) below thresholds. Adding would push AI-chips to 42%+, violating risk constraint. No direct catalyst, only indirect agentic AI tailwinds. Hard skip.

Win-Prob 62 just shy of threshold and Thesis 43 well below 60 bar — fails convergence. Risk Agent flags hard concentration constraint at 42%. No specific catalyst. Skip.

Fails convergence bar (thesis 43 < 60). Strong recent move and catalyst flow are real but chasing an 11% 5d spike into a sector concentration ceiling is exactly the trade outside investors penalize. Skip.

Exceptional direct catalyst (agentic CPU, OpenAI smartphone) and strong momentum, but Risk Agent flags hard sector concentration breach at 42%+. Thesis percentile only 43. Catalyst drives urgency but not direction — cannot override the concentration constraint. Skip on a watchlist name.

Watchlist name. Convergence requires thesis>=60 AND win_prob>=65; QCOM clears thesis (61) but not win_prob (62). Risk agent flags severe concentration. Sharp 5d move suggests catalyst already priced. Skip.

Watchlist name just misses convergence bar (need 60/65, got 61/62 — win-prob below threshold). 11% 5d move means we'd be chasing. Risk agent flags hard concentration constraint. Skip.

Watchlist name with thesis 61 / win-prob 62 — fails the 60/65 convergence bar by a hair on win-prob. Catalyst is real (AI PC adoption) but Risk Agent hard-blocks: adding pushes ai-chips to 42%. Already extended after 11% 5d move. Skip per Principle 5.

Just barely misses convergence bar (win_prob 62 < 65). More importantly, risk agent flags severe sector concentration that would push chips to 42%+. Hard risk constraint. After 11% 5d move, chasing here is poor risk/reward. Skip.

Win-Prob only 45 and risk agent flags hard concentration constraint at 42%+. Thesis at 61 is borderline but fails convergence test (need both >=60 thesis AND >=65 win_prob). Skip per principles 3 and 5.

Catalyst agent flags direct named involvement in agentic edge AI — interesting. But Win-Probability is only 45 (fails convergence threshold of 65) and Risk Agent flags severe AI-chips concentration. Convergence rule fails. Skip despite catalyst appeal.

Not held. Fails convergence (win_prob 45 below 65 bar). Weak momentum, risk agent hard-flags concentration. Skip.

QCOM doesn't clear the convergence bar (win_prob 45 < 65) and risk agent flags severe sector concentration at 42% if added. Momentum weak, 34% below 52wk high reflects real demand uncertainty in China/auto. Catalyst is only indirect sector read-through. Hard skip.

Watchlist name failing the convergence test — win_probability=45 is well below the 65 bar. Thesis is only marginally interesting at 61, momentum is weak, and adding worsens the hard sector concentration constraint. No catalyst. Skip.